A U.S. soldier walks past an overturned
sign outside
the Iraqi oil ministry building in Baghdad.
A lack of a
governmental authority to approve exports
is one many
obstacles to restarting oil production. |
Though Iraq’s oil infrastructure remains
largely intact, and storage tanks are overflowing, oil dealers can’t buy
it. With no banking system or oil ministry, transactions can’t happen.
What will it take to restore this critical source of hard currency to feed
the Iraqi people and fund reconstruction of their country?
WORRIES THAT A prolonged war could leave
Iraq’s oil infrastructure in ruins were not borne out. While oilfields
and pipelines in the south sustained some damage, operations in the north
were largely unscathed. Though oil sales ground to a halt on March 20,
oil continued to flow into storage tanks in the Turkish port of Ceyhan
until they filled to capacity.
See Pipelines: Iraq
Map or Saudi Map
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But the estimated 8 million barrels of
oil stored there — and the rest of Iraq’s oil output — remains stranded
by the collapse of the mechanism for selling Iraqi oil. Untangling the
legal and political morass is proving more difficult than restarting Iraq’s
production and transport infrastructure.
Resuming oil sales will be critical to stabilizing
Iraq. The shutdown of Iraqi oil exports has cut off a vital source of hard
currency needed to rebuild the country and, more immediately, feed its
people. The U.N. oil-for-food program, established in 1995 to allow Iraq
to proceeds from oil sales to buy food, medicine and other humanitarian
goods, generated as much as $1 billion a month in oil proceeds at its peak.
Some 60 percent of Iraq’s 24 million people depend entirely on the program
for food. The U.N. still has billions in an escrow account from past sales
to fund the program. But it may be awhile before cash from Iraqi oil sales
begins flowing again.
For starters, the financial infrastructure
needed to support oil sales was shattered by the war.
“Nobody
walks in with cash and takes away [a] barrel of oil,” said Bill O’Grady
an oil futures analyst at A.G. Edwards. “You contract to buy the oil, you
take out some sort of letter of credit and some bank gets your documents.
What banking system exists in Iraq?”
Rebuilding
Iraq’s banking system is just getting underway. On Thursday, the Bush administration
named Michigan State University President Peter McPherson to take charge
of financial matters related to the rebuilding of Iraq. McPherson served
as the second-highest Treasury Department official in the Reagan administration.
Then there’s the question of just who will
operate Iraq’s oil infrastructure. Under Saddam Hussein’s regime, oil was
produced by two national oil companies (one covering northern oilfields
and the other those in the south) and sold by the State Oil Marketing Organization,
or SOMO, under U.N. supervision. While many of the Iraqis who ran those
operations are available to go back to work, and U.S. forces moved quickly
to secure the main oil ministry offices in Baghdad, other offices outside
the city have been looted.
There’s
also the issue of reparations. About a quarter of the proceeds from the
oil-for-food went to pay reparations for damages inflicted during the Gulf
War. Before Iraqi oil sales resume, those claims must be resolved.
It’s
also not clear exactly who owns the oil. Until a new government is in place,
there’s no one who can sign off on any transfer.
“You
can export oil until a buyer can be assured legal title,” said Robert Ebel
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
That’s touched off a fierce, behind-the-scenes
battle over who will control the sale of Iraqi oil. While all agree the
proceeds should be used to feed the Iraqi people and help rebuild their
country, the central issues that split the U.N. over the decision to go
to war have touched off a renewed debate over reconstruction. U.N. Security
Council members France and Russia, who opposed the war, now want assurances
that billions in loans they made to the former Iraqi regime will be repaid.
They also want to see agreements upheld that were made by Saddam to develop
Iraq’s oil resources. That’s why they’re pushing for the U.N. to continue
to supervise the sale of Iraq’s oil.
“Controlling
Iraqi oil is their leverage,” said David Phillips at the Council on Foreign
Relations. “If they relinquish their ability to manipulate the sale of
oil, then they’ve given away their ability to leverage the U.S. and other
Security Council members to succumb to the demands.”
European leaders meeting in Athens Thursday
called for a new Security Council resolution guaranteeing the United Nations
a “central role” in the country’s administration. But there’s little support
for the idea in Washington. Last week, Senator John Warner, Chairman of
the Senate Armed Services Committee, summed up the prevailing view by saying
that the U.N. should be a partner in the rebuilding, but “not a managing
partner, for that role of the management most properly falls to the coalition
of the willing that conducted these operations.”
U.N.
sanctions on Iraqi oil exports remain in place. After Bush this week called
for those sanctions to be lifted, the same countries that opposed the U.S.
invasion have said that can’t happen until U.N. weapons inspectors have
be allowed to finish their work.
“For
the Security Council to take this decision, we need to be certain whether
Iraq has weapons of mass destruction or not,” said Russian Foreign Minister
Igor Ivanov.
Washington
has made clear it prefers to do the job itself and a Pentagon official
said it had enlisted about 10 former U.N. weapons inspectors to help the
search.
The
Security Council will hold closed-door meetings Tuesday to try to come
up with a resolution.
Even
if the U.N. ends up playing a limited role in Iraqi oil sales, it remains
to be seen whether the Iraqi people will support an interim government
supervised by coalition forces. In the past week, Shiite clerics in southern
Iraq have moved to fill the power vacuum by appointing governors, imposing
curfews and offering jobs, health care and financial assistance to the
poor.
But if that process of building a new government
drags on too long, the U.S. coalition allies may decide, once again, to
proceed on their own without unanimous Security Council approval.
“At
what point does the U.S. break the sanctions and say, ‘What are you doing
to do about it?,’” said O’Grady. “There are diplomatic niceties here, but
our boots are on the ground.”
The
White House has already signaled it’s not waiting to resolve the U.N. role
in reconstruction. On Thursday, the Bush administration awarded the first
major contract for rebuilding Iraq, worth as much as $680 million, to Bechtel
Group of San Francisco.
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